The one thing that beats an underdog story is a train wreck. The Oscars are definitely in the latter at the moment. The audience tuning in is shrinking every year and The Academy can’t come up with a way to save itself while simultaneously trying to preserve the prestige that’s associated with the award. Everything they do tends to backfire, whether it’s planned or unplanned.* Despite all of this, and maybe even in spite of it all, I get a kick out of predicting the winners and checking out nominations I haven’t yet seen.
*(Examples of this include, but are not limited to: Will Smith slapping Chris Rock; The Flash entering the speed force as the “most memorable movie moment”; shuffling the “best supporting actor” award to the end of the show in 2021 because everyone thought Chadwick Boseman was going to win; La La Land getting erroneously dubbed as the best picture winner in 2017 vs Moonlight who actually won, and so on).
The races that are always the most interesting to try and predict are the acting awards (both of which are categories that need to be combined into a single “Best Actor” award for all individuals), International Feature, and of course Best Picture. Trying to guess how the academy will vote can be boiled down to a few factors: how the movie was generally received (critically and publicly), how the movies award campaign is being received, how the movie is doing at other awards shows, and the academy wild card factor. This year, Everything Everywhere All At Once (EEAAO) has swept the “Movie Of The Year” award at each major awards show, along with the Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (the directors of EEAAO; “The Daniels”) winning the “Best Director” award. This typically means the movie is a shoe-in for Best Picture at The Oscars—but there is always the wild card factor. The wild card factor is when The Academy stands up and flips off the favored movie with two hands held high up in the air, and instead votes for the movie that will be irrelevant in as little as a year.*
*(The biggest example of this I can think of off the top of my head is 2012s The Artist. The Artist won Best Picture over Zero Dark Thirty and a few other great movies that have lived on in the publics consciousness far longer than The Artist ever has).
The Oscars are in a unique position this year in that nominations include not only your typical indie-passion projects and film festival darlings, but some major blockbusters (i.e. Top Gun: Maverick). Normally I would have to go out of my way to check out the best picture nominations that catch my eye, but this year I had already seen about half of the movies that got nominated. This will definitely factor into how this years awards are received, and maybe even how the academy voted. At the end of the day we all have our personal movies of the year (Babylon is mine), but it’s interesting to see what the town’s most high-browed individuals think is the best of the best.
This year, to start prepping my guessing skills for March Madness and to provide some entertainment for you, i’ve made a fan ballot based on my favorite movies of the year and who I think will actually win. I have not seen every movie that gets nominated, nor do intend to (I sadly don’t have enough time or the desire to do so, but i’ve asterisked my picks that I have actually seen). I do keep up with awards season and have an idea of what is performing well though—so without further ado, here are my picks for The Oscars 2023:
Documentary Short
How Do You Measure A Year?
Live-Action Short
Le Pupille
Animated Short
My Year Of Dicks
Visual Effects
Avatar: The Way Of Water*
Sound
Top Gun: Maverick*
Production Design
Avatar: The Way Of Water*
Makeup and Hairstyling
The Batman*
Editing
Everything Everywhere All At Once*
Costume Design
Babylon*
Cinematography
Tar*
Original Song
“Naatu, Naatu” - RRR*
Original Score
Babylon*
Documentary Feature
Fire Of Love
Animated Feature
Marcel The Shell With Shoes On*
International Feature
All Quiet On The Western Front
Adapted Screenplay
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery*
Original Screenplay
Everything Everywhere All At Once*
Actress In A Supporting Role
Jaime Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once*
Actor In A Supporting Role
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once*
Actress In A Leading Role
Cate Blanchett, Tar*
Actor In A Leading Role
Colin Ferrell, The Banshees Of Inisherin*
Director
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once*
Best Picture
Everything Everywhere All At Once*
What To Watch
Other than The Oscars this Sunday, there are quite a few noteworthy things to check out:
HBO’s The Last Of Us - The season finale is this week! Keep an eye out for the actor playing Ellie’s mom, who is the same actor who did motion capture and voice acting for Ellie in the video game. (Quick story: I was talking with my parents last weekend and they excitedly ask me, “are you watching The Last Of Us??!” and I of course smile and tell them that I am, and that I’m a big fan of the game it’s based on. I then learned that my mom started this show by herself one weekend and that she got my dad to watch with her since it’s pretty intense, and they’re hooked now.)
History Of The World: Part 2 - Nick Kroll and co. have made a sequel to the cult classic 80s movie, and it’s super irreverent but great. If you’re into smart skits with dumb humor in a historical setting, check it out on Hulu!
Ted Lasso - Premieres on Wednesday! Supposedly this season is going to be concluding the story that Sudeikis and co. set out to originally tell. Based on the production delays (rewrites, reshoots, etc.) and how bloated season two was, i’m curious how this will shake out. Either way, it’s Apple’s best show and I’m looking forward to the next 12 weeks of Ted’s innocent innuendos.